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Low Returns Are Fundamentally Unstable

10 Year Treasury Rate - 54 Year Historical Chart In my previous post, I discussed how investors seeking relative value tend to drive prices up and returns down over time. When returns are low, small changes in expected returns (or small differences in returns between investments) result in large price changes. Everything I know about …

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Podcast Notes: June 2017

Rory Sutherland on The Psychology of Advertising, Complex Evolved Systems, Reading, Decision Making - May 20, 2017 (10:15) "By getting us to shift our focus to what's good about something rather than what we assume to be bad about it, you can synthesize happiness out of nowhere." -Rory Sutherland (12:50) "The biggest source of economic …

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Opportunity Costs, Relative Value, and Absolute Value

  "If you take the best text in economics by Mankiw, he says intelligent people make decisions based on opportunity costs—in other words, it’s your alternatives that matter. That’s how we make all of our decisions." -Charlie Munger Most people make investment decisions by comparing a potential investment to other investments that are available today. …

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Podcast Notes: Seminars about Long-Term Thinking (May 2017)

Frank Ostaseski: What the Dying Teach the Living - April 10, 2017 On the afterlife: "My father used to say, 'It can't be so bad because nobody has come back to complain.' Talk to the Buddhists about that." -Frank Ostaseski (1:25:45) "I had this grandma. She was a Christian Scientist. She was so ready to …

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Podcast Notes: Naval Ravikand on The Knowledge Project

This podcast deserves its own post. Naval Ravikand shares with Shane Parrish many insights on how to live a better life. Lots of wisdom here. I encourage you to listen to the entire 2-hour podcast: The Knowledge Project: Naval Ravikand on Reading, Happiness, Systems for Decision Making, Habits, Radical Honesty - February 27, 2017 "I do …

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